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Commercial Bank vs. Central Bank

Discuss whether it is always possible for a country to have low unemployment and low inflation at the same time.

Category:

Unemployment

Frequently asked question

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Answer

Be aware of the cultural and historical context when analyzing economic phenomena.

It is not always possible for a country to have low unemployment and low inflation at the same time. Here's why:
➡️1. Demand-pull inflation: Low unemployment often leads to higher incomes and increased consumer spending. This can result in a situation where total demand exceeds the productive capacity of the economy, leading to demand-pull inflation. As prices rise due to increased demand, inflationary pressures can emerge, making it challenging to maintain both low unemployment and low inflation simultaneously.
➡️2. Cost-push inflation: When unemployment is low, competition for labor becomes more intense, which can drive up wages. Higher labor costs can increase firms' production costs, leading to cost-push inflation. As firms pass on these increased costs to consumers through higher prices, inflationary pressures can arise.
➡️3. Wage-price spiral: In some cases, there can be a feedback loop between wages and prices known as the wage-price spiral. When low unemployment leads to upward pressure on wages, workers may demand higher wages to keep up with rising prices. As wages increase, firms' costs of production rise, prompting them to raise prices further. This cycle of rising wages and prices can contribute to sustained inflationary pressures.
➡️4. Supply constraints: Achieving low unemployment requires a robust and productive labor force. However, if there are supply constraints, such as a lack of skilled workers or limited capacity to expand production, it becomes difficult to sustain low unemployment without triggering inflation. Limited supply can lead to upward pressure on wages and prices, contributing to inflationary pressures.
➡️5. External factors: Inflation and unemployment can be influenced by external factors such as changes in global commodity prices, exchange rates, or global economic conditions. These factors can impact a country's inflation rate and employment levels, making it challenging to control both simultaneously.
While it is possible for short-term fluctuations to align low unemployment with low inflation, achieving and sustaining both in the long run requires careful management of aggregate demand, supply-side factors, and external influences. Policymakers must strike a delicate balance between stimulating economic growth, promoting employment, and maintaining price stability to achieve the optimal combination of low unemployment and low inflation.

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I. 🍃Introduction
- Brief explanation of the topic
- Importance of understanding the relationship between unemployment and inflation

II. Reasons why low unemployment may not lead to low inflation
- High incomes and total demand causing demand-pull inflation
- Increased competition for labor leading to higher wages and cost-push inflation
- Price/wage spiral causing demand-pull inflation to lead to cost-push inflation

III. Reasons why low unemployment may lead to low inflation
- Total supply increasing as total demand increases, leading to high output and low unemployment without inflation
- Advances in technology and improvements in education raising productivity and lowering costs of production, reducing cost-push inflation and increasing demand for labor
- Low inflation stimulating firms to raise output and take on more workers

IV. 👉Conclusion
- Summary of the main points
- Importance of considering both sides of the argument when analyzing the relationship between unemployment and inflation.

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Up to ➡️5 marks for why it might: If total supply is increasing - as total demand increases - output will be high - causing low unemployment without inflation -. Advances in technology/improvements in education - raises productivity - can lower costs of production - reducing cost-push inflation - and increasing demand for labour -. Low inflation may stimulate firms to raise output - take on more workers -.
Up to ➡️5 marks for why it might not: Low unemployment may mean incomes are high - total demand may be high - causing demand-pull inflation -. Low unemployment may result in increased competition for labour - this may raise wages - increasing firms’ costs of production - causing cost-push inflation -. Inflation may create a price/wage spiral - demand-pull inflation leading to cost-push inflation -.

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