How important was Trotsky in Stalin’s emergence as leader by 1928?

The extent to which Trotsky was responsible for Stalin’s rise to power by 1928 is debatable. Whilst Trotsky’s own shortcomings undoubtedly played into Stalin’s hands, ultimately other factors such as Stalin’s political manoeuvrings and the appeal of “Socialism in One Country” were more significant.

There is evidence to suggest that Trotsky’s mistakes significantly aided Stalin’s rise. Firstly, his absence at Lenin’s funeral, due to a malaria-like illness, allowed Stalin to position himself as Lenin’s natural successor in the eyes of the public. This blunder gifted Stalin an early propaganda victory. Secondly, Trotsky’s arrogance alienated him from key figures within the Party. His intellectual vanity led him to dismiss Stalin as a “grey blur”, an error in judgment which cost him potential alliances within the Politburo. Trotsky’s unpopular “Permanent Revolution” theory compounded this, alarming those fearful of further upheaval after years of civil war. Lastly, Trotsky’s association with the Red Army, whilst impressive, also fuelled anxieties about his potential for dictatorship. Stalin effectively exploited these fears to his advantage.

However, other factors were more crucial to Stalin’s success. Stalin’s cunning political strategy proved far more decisive than Trotsky’s miscalculations. He shrewdly shifted his position between the Left and Right factions within the Party, exploiting their mutual distrust to his advantage. His advocacy of “Socialism in One Country”, in contrast to Trotsky’s “Permanent Revolution”, held greater appeal to a nation weary of war and eager for stability. Furthermore, Lenin’s death created a power vacuum that Stalin, as General Secretary, was perfectly placed to fill. This position, often overlooked by Trotsky, gave Stalin control over Party appointments, allowing him to build a loyal power base. Finally, Lenin’s Testament, which criticized Stalin’s ruthlessness, was successfully suppressed by Stalin and his allies, preventing a potential blow to his credibility.

In conclusion, whilst Trotsky’s personality and political misjudgements certainly contributed to his downfall, they were not the primary factors in Stalin’s rise. Stalin’s shrewd political manoeuvrings, the appeal of “Socialism in One Country” and his strategic use of his position as General Secretary proved far more decisive. Trotsky’s mistakes merely provided opportunities for Stalin to exploit, opportunities he seized with ruthless efficiency. His victory was less about Trotsky’s failures, and more about his own calculated ambition.

Sources:

⭐Figes, O. (1996). A People's Tragedy: The Russian Revolution 1891-1924. London: Pimlico.
⭐Service, R. (2004). Stalin: A Biography. London: Macmillan.